Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Feb 26, 2022 Past — — Total Weight 456.608
Channels Engaged
15
Predictions Logged
156
Value Picks Flagged
52
Fight Slots
11
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 156 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 15 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 52 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Ramiz Brahimaj ROI 1.21x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Ramiz Brahimaj vs Micheal Gillmore 1.21x ROI
Ramiz Brahimaj weighted 1.0 Market 1.26 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Jonathan Martinez vs Alejandro Pérez 1.12x ROI
Jonathan Martinez weighted 1.19 Market 1.39 Crowd 1.22
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Ramiz Brahimaj vs Micheal Gillmore 0.74x ROI
Micheal Gillmore weighted — Market 3.91 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Jonathan Martinez vs Alejandro Pérez 0.83x ROI
Alejandro Pérez weighted 6.31 Market 3.03 Crowd 5.5
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Wellington Turman vs Misha Cirkunov 0.85x ROI
Misha Cirkunov weighted 2.3 Market 1.72 Crowd 2.5
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 11
Weighted model 72.7%
Pure crowd 72.7%
Market favourite 54.5%

Islam Makhachev vs Bobby Green

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 110.07
ROI Momentum 0.07
Underdog Specialist 0.04
Favorite Reliability 44.16
Weight-Class Ace 10.57
Regional Familiarity 20.85
Value Pick Signal 24.85
Sample Size Confidence 90.0

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.