Event Selector

UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Feb 12, 2022 Past Houston, Texas , U.S. U S Total Weight 563.797
Channels Engaged
13
Predictions Logged
189
Value Picks Flagged
53
Fight Slots
14
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 189 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 13 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 53 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.15 Andrei Arlovski ROI 1.27x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Andrei Arlovski vs Jared Vanderaa 1.27x ROI
Andrei Arlovski weighted 1.15 Market 1.67 Crowd 1.2
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Jacob Malkoun vs A.J. Dobson 1.23x ROI
A.J. Dobson weighted 1.29 Market 1.84 Crowd 1.25
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Andrei Arlovski vs Jared Vanderaa 0.68x ROI
Jared Vanderaa weighted 7.67 Market 2.24 Crowd 6.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Jacob Malkoun vs A.J. Dobson 0.71x ROI
Jacob Malkoun weighted 4.41 Market 1.95 Crowd 5.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Casey O'Neill vs Roxanne Modafferi 0.75x ROI
Roxanne Modafferi weighted — Market 3.95 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 14
Weighted model 64.3%
Pure crowd 64.3%
Market favourite 78.6%

Israel Adesanya vs Robert Whittaker

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 133.97
ROI Momentum 1.03
Underdog Specialist 1.81
Favorite Reliability 56.48
Weight-Class Ace 11.41
Regional Familiarity 27.3
Value Pick Signal 33.6
Sample Size Confidence 109.2

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.