Event Selector

UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Sep 25, 2021 Past 19,029 029 Total Weight 399.195
Channels Engaged
11
Predictions Logged
141
Value Picks Flagged
48
Fight Slots
13
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 141 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 11 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 48 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Chris Daukaus ROI 1.32x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge Γ—1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum Γ—1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist Γ—0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability Γ—0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace Γ—0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal Γ—0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence Γ—0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Chris Daukaus vs Shamil Abdurakhimov 1.32x ROI
Chris Daukaus weighted 1.0 Market 1.47 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Curtis Blaydes vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik 1.24x ROI
Curtis Blaydes weighted 1.0 Market 1.32 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Matthew Semelsberger vs Martin Sano Jr. 1.17x ROI
Matthew Semelsberger weighted 1.0 Market 1.2 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Chris Daukaus vs Shamil Abdurakhimov 0.63x ROI
Shamil Abdurakhimov weighted β€” Market 2.67 Crowd β€”
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Curtis Blaydes vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0.7x ROI
Jairzinho Rozenstruik weighted β€” Market 3.37 Crowd β€”
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Matthew Semelsberger vs Martin Sano Jr. 0.78x ROI
Martin Sano Jr. weighted β€” Market 4.5 Crowd β€”
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 13
Weighted model 76.9%
Pure crowd 84.6%
Market favourite 76.9%

Alexander Volkanovski vs Brian Ortega

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet β€” waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 92.35
ROI Momentum 0.03
Underdog Specialist -0.07
Favorite Reliability 39.23
Weight-Class Ace 8.01
Regional Familiarity 19.95
Value Pick Signal 23.1
Sample Size Confidence 75.6

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.