Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Feb 20, 2021 Past Total Weight 266.55
Channels Engaged
10
Predictions Logged
95
Value Picks Flagged
30
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 95 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 10 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 30 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Nassourdine Imavov ROI 1.51x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Phil Hawes vs Nassourdine Imavov 1.51x ROI
Nassourdine Imavov weighted 1.0 Market 2.02 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Tom Aspinall vs Andrei Arlovski 1.27x ROI
Tom Aspinall weighted 1.0 Market 1.37 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Yana Kunitskaya vs Ketlen Vieira 1.26x ROI
Ketlen Vieira weighted 1.0 Market 1.35 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Phil Hawes vs Nassourdine Imavov 0.44x ROI
Phil Hawes weighted — Market 1.8 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Tom Aspinall vs Andrei Arlovski 0.67x ROI
Andrei Arlovski weighted — Market 3.07 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Yana Kunitskaya vs Ketlen Vieira 0.69x ROI
Yana Kunitskaya weighted — Market 3.18 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 41.7%
Pure crowd 58.3%
Market favourite 50.0%

Derrick Lewis vs Curtis Blaydes

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 68.35
ROI Momentum -0.54
Underdog Specialist 0.24
Favorite Reliability 29.39
Weight-Class Ace 0.81
Value Pick Signal 17.5
Sample Size Confidence 55.8

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.