Event Selector

UFC on ABC: Holloway vs. Kattar

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Jan 16, 2021 Past Total Weight 271.656
Channels Engaged
9
Predictions Logged
104
Value Picks Flagged
41
Fight Slots
10
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 104 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 9 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 41 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.77 Alessio Di Chirico ROI 1.25x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Alessio Di Chirico vs Joaquin Buckley 1.25x ROI
Alessio Di Chirico weighted 1.77 Market 3.22 Crowd 1.67
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Carlos Condit vs Matt Brown 1.2x ROI
Carlos Condit weighted 1.19 Market 1.55 Crowd 1.25
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Punahele Soriano vs Duško Todorović 1.19x ROI
Punahele Soriano weighted 1.62 Market 2.34 Crowd 1.5
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Alessio Di Chirico vs Joaquin Buckley 0.69x ROI
Joaquin Buckley weighted 2.29 Market 1.34 Crowd 2.5
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Carlos Condit vs Matt Brown 0.75x ROI
Matt Brown weighted 6.4 Market 2.43 Crowd 5.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Punahele Soriano vs Duško Todorović 0.77x ROI
Duško Todorović weighted 2.61 Market 1.62 Crowd 3.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 10
Weighted model 70.0%
Pure crowd 80.0%
Market favourite 40.0%

Max Holloway vs Calvin Kattar

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 68.74
ROI Momentum -0.68
Underdog Specialist -1.08
Favorite Reliability 22.43
Weight-Class Ace 3.3
Value Pick Signal 18.55
Sample Size Confidence 56.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.