Event Selector

UFC on ESPN: Hermansson vs. Vettori

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Dec 05, 2020 Past Total Weight 179.155
Channels Engaged
7
Predictions Logged
68
Value Picks Flagged
19
Fight Slots
8
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 68 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 7 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 19 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.46 José Alberto Quiñónez ROI 1.19x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Louis Smolka vs José Alberto Quiñónez 1.19x ROI
José Alberto Quiñónez weighted 1.46 Market 2.02 Crowd 1.4
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Louis Smolka vs José Alberto Quiñónez 0.76x ROI
Louis Smolka weighted 3.15 Market 1.78 Crowd 3.5
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Marvin Vettori vs Jack Hermansson 0.83x ROI
Marvin Vettori weighted 2.41 Market 1.71 Crowd 2.5
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Gabriel Benítez vs Justin Jaynes 0.84x ROI
Gabriel Benítez weighted 1.9 Market 1.46 Crowd 2.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 8
Weighted model 62.5%
Pure crowd 75.0%
Market favourite 87.5%

Marvin Vettori vs Jack Hermansson

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 43.68
ROI Momentum -0.61
Underdog Specialist -0.47
Favorite Reliability 16.95
Weight-Class Ace 5.11
Value Pick Signal 10.5
Sample Size Confidence 36.0

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.