Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. dos Anjos

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Nov 14, 2020 Past Total Weight 215.733
Channels Engaged
8
Predictions Logged
84
Value Picks Flagged
23
Fight Slots
9
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 84 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 8 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 23 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.14 Rafael dos Anjos ROI 1.21x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Rafael dos Anjos vs Paul Felder 1.21x ROI
Rafael dos Anjos weighted 1.14 Market 1.49 Crowd 1.2
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Sean Strickland vs Brendan Allen 1.17x ROI
Brendan Allen weighted 1.39 Market 1.81 Crowd 1.5
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Rafael dos Anjos vs Paul Felder 0.74x ROI
Paul Felder weighted 8.23 Market 2.66 Crowd 6.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Sean Strickland vs Brendan Allen 0.78x ROI
Sean Strickland weighted 3.54 Market 2.0 Crowd 3.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Tony Gravely vs Geraldo de Freitas 0.83x ROI
Geraldo de Freitas weighted 3.44 Market 2.16 Crowd 3.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 9
Weighted model 55.6%
Pure crowd 55.6%
Market favourite 33.3%

Rafael dos Anjos vs Paul Felder

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 54.75
ROI Momentum -0.38
Underdog Specialist -0.68
Favorite Reliability 18.18
Weight-Class Ace 2.97
Value Pick Signal 11.9
Sample Size Confidence 45.0

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.