Event Selector

UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Oct 24, 2020 Past Abu Dhabi , United Arab Emirates United Arab Emirates Total Weight 284.102
Channels Engaged
7
Predictions Logged
100
Value Picks Flagged
36
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 100 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 7 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 36 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Shavkat Rakhmonov ROI 1.45x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Shavkat Rakhmonov vs Alex Oliveira 1.45x ROI
Shavkat Rakhmonov weighted 1.0 Market 1.81 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Joel Álvarez vs Alexander Yakovlev 1.37x ROI
Joel Álvarez weighted 1.0 Market 1.58 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Alexander Volkov vs Walt Harris 1.35x ROI
Alexander Volkov weighted 1.0 Market 1.54 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Shavkat Rakhmonov vs Alex Oliveira 0.5x ROI
Alex Oliveira weighted — Market 2.0 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Joel Álvarez vs Alexander Yakovlev 0.58x ROI
Alexander Yakovlev weighted — Market 2.38 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Alexander Volkov vs Walt Harris 0.6x ROI
Walt Harris weighted — Market 2.52 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 11
Weighted model 90.9%
Pure crowd 90.9%
Market favourite 72.7%

Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Justin Gaethje

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 65.83
ROI Momentum -0.18
Underdog Specialist -0.02
Favorite Reliability 26.93
Weight-Class Ace 4.99
Regional Familiarity 13.65
Value Pick Signal 18.9
Sample Size Confidence 54.0

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.