Event Selector

UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Till

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Jul 26, 2020 Past Abu Dhabi , United Arab Emirates United Arab Emirates Total Weight 225.307
Channels Engaged
6
Predictions Logged
87
Value Picks Flagged
16
Fight Slots
15
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 87 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 6 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 16 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Robert Whittaker ROI 1.4x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Robert Whittaker vs Darren Till 1.4x ROI
Robert Whittaker weighted 1.0 Market 1.68 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Movsar Evloev vs Mike Grundy 1.34x ROI
Movsar Evloev weighted 1.0 Market 1.5 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Robert Whittaker vs Darren Till 0.54x ROI
Darren Till weighted — Market 2.19 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Movsar Evloev vs Mike Grundy 0.62x ROI
Mike Grundy weighted — Market 2.63 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Fabrício Werdum vs Alexander Gustafsson 0.71x ROI
Fabrício Werdum weighted — Market 3.49 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 13
Weighted model 84.6%
Pure crowd 92.3%
Market favourite 38.5%

Robert Whittaker vs Darren Till

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 52.39
ROI Momentum -1.14
Underdog Specialist -0.64
Favorite Reliability 17.27
Weight-Class Ace 1.23
Regional Familiarity 13.05
Value Pick Signal 12.95
Sample Size Confidence 43.2

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.