Event Selector

UFC on ESPN: Poirier vs. Hooker

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Jun 27, 2020 Past Las Vegas, Nevada , U.S. U S Total Weight 144.492
Channels Engaged
7
Predictions Logged
55
Value Picks Flagged
6
Fight Slots
10
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 55 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 7 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 6 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Mike Perry ROI 1.24x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Mike Perry vs Mickey Gall 1.24x ROI
Mike Perry weighted 1.0 Market 1.32 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Maurice Greene vs Gian Villante 1.12x ROI
Gian Villante weighted 2.29 Market 3.12 Crowd 2.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Dustin Poirier vs Dan Hooker 1.1x ROI
Dan Hooker weighted 2.24 Market 2.87 Crowd 2.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Mike Perry vs Mickey Gall 0.71x ROI
Mickey Gall weighted — Market 3.4 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Maurice Greene vs Gian Villante 0.84x ROI
Maurice Greene weighted 1.78 Market 1.38 Crowd 2.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Dustin Poirier vs Dan Hooker 0.85x ROI
Dustin Poirier weighted 1.81 Market 1.42 Crowd 2.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 10
Weighted model 70.0%
Pure crowd 70.0%
Market favourite 30.0%

Dustin Poirier vs Dan Hooker

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 33.93
ROI Momentum -0.35
Favorite Reliability 10.33
Weight-Class Ace 3.82
Regional Familiarity 7.5
Value Pick Signal 6.65
Sample Size Confidence 27.6

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.