Event Selector

UFC 319: du Plessis vs. Chimaev

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Aug 16, 2025 Past Chicago, Illinois , U.S. U S Total Weight 5739.353
Channels Engaged
456
Predictions Logged
2990
Value Picks Flagged
759
Fight Slots
17
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 2990 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 456 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 759 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.8 Dricus du Plessis ROI 1.24x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Dricus du Plessis vs Khamzat Chimaev 1.24x ROI
Dricus du Plessis weighted 1.8 Market 3.19 Crowd 1.78
AU, EU, GLOBAL, UK, US, US2 Sample 6
Market Heat
Jéssica Andrade vs Loopy Godínez 0.41x ROI
Loopy Godínez weighted — Market 1.69 Crowd —
AU, EU, GLOBAL, UK, US, US2 Sample 6
Jéssica Andrade vs Loopy Godínez 0.53x ROI
Jéssica Andrade weighted — Market 2.13 Crowd —
AU, EU, GLOBAL, UK, US, US2 Sample 6
Dricus du Plessis vs Khamzat Chimaev 0.71x ROI
Khamzat Chimaev weighted 2.25 Market 1.37 Crowd 2.28
AU, EU, GLOBAL, UK, US, US2 Sample 6

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 11
Weighted model 54.5%
Pure crowd 54.5%
Market favourite 54.5%

Dricus du Plessis vs Khamzat Chimaev

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 909.75
ROI Momentum -31.02
Underdog Specialist -6.34
Favorite Reliability 340.03
Weight-Class Ace 140.63
Regional Familiarity 246.75
Value Pick Signal 379.75
Sample Size Confidence 769.8

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.