Event Selector

UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Jun 28, 2025 Past Las Vegas , Nevada , U.S. U S Total Weight 4628.72
Channels Engaged
395
Predictions Logged
2481
Value Picks Flagged
625
Fight Slots
16
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 2481 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 395 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 625 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Justin Tafa ROI 1.71x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Jhonata Diniz vs Justin Tafa 1.71x ROI
Justin Tafa weighted 1.0 Market 3.46 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Brandon Royval vs Joshua Van 1.45x ROI
Joshua Van weighted 1.0 Market 1.83 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Christopher Ewert vs Jackson McVey 1.39x ROI
Christopher Ewert weighted 1.0 Market 1.64 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Jhonata Diniz vs Justin Tafa 0.23x ROI
Jhonata Diniz weighted — Market 1.3 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Brandon Royval vs Joshua Van 0.49x ROI
Brandon Royval weighted — Market 1.96 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Christopher Ewert vs Jackson McVey 0.56x ROI
Jackson McVey weighted — Market 2.27 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 11
Weighted model 81.8%
Pure crowd 72.7%
Market favourite 81.8%

Ilia Topuria vs Charles Oliveira

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 690.81
ROI Momentum -24.29
Underdog Specialist -13.52
Favorite Reliability 287.86
Weight-Class Ace 83.76
Regional Familiarity 216.0
Value Pick Signal 326.9
Sample Size Confidence 580.2

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.