Event Selector

UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Oct 25, 2025 Past Abu Dhabi , United Arab Emirates United Arab Emirates Total Weight 6075.798
Channels Engaged
388
Predictions Logged
2868
Value Picks Flagged
394
Fight Slots
14
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 2868 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 388 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 394 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge — Waiting for openings
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
No positive edges detected.
Market Heat
Valter Walker vs Louie Sutherland 0.83x ROI
Louie Sutherland weighted 12.98 Market 4.1 Crowd 10.5
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Azat Maksum vs Mitch Raposo 0.85x ROI
Mitch Raposo weighted 15.81 Market 4.67 Crowd 15.88
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Jaqueline Amorim vs Mizuki Inoue 0.85x ROI
Mizuki Inoue weighted 11.15 Market 4.16 Crowd 11.64
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 41.7%
Pure crowd 58.3%
Market favourite 58.3%

Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 1241.52
ROI Momentum -68.29
Underdog Specialist -21.15
Favorite Reliability 558.8
Weight-Class Ace 81.82
Regional Familiarity 208.95
Value Pick Signal 158.55
Sample Size Confidence 1047.6

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.