Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Sep 13, 2025 Past San Antonio, Texas , U.S. U S Total Weight 4881.92
Channels Engaged
301
Predictions Logged
2302
Value Picks Flagged
568
Fight Slots
16
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 2302 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 301 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 568 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 David Martínez ROI 1.49x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Rob Font vs David Martínez 1.49x ROI
David Martínez weighted 1.0 Market 1.96 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Jesús Santos Aguilar vs Luis Gurule 1.19x ROI
Jesús Santos Aguilar weighted 1.78 Market 2.68 Crowd 1.68
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Rob Font vs David Martínez 0.45x ROI
Rob Font weighted — Market 1.83 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Jesús Santos Aguilar vs Luis Gurule 0.76x ROI
Luis Gurule weighted 2.28 Market 1.48 Crowd 2.47
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Rob Font vs David Martinez 0.79x ROI
David Martinez weighted 3.27 Market 1.95 Crowd 3.15
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 58.3%
Pure crowd 58.3%
Market favourite 33.3%

Diego Lopes vs Jean Silva

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 934.48
ROI Momentum -41.47
Underdog Specialist -2.6
Favorite Reliability 381.8
Weight-Class Ace 83.56
Regional Familiarity 164.85
Value Pick Signal 270.9
Sample Size Confidence 788.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.