Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Nov 22, 2025 Past Al Rayyan , Qatar Qatar Total Weight 3421.471
Channels Engaged
227
Predictions Logged
1951
Value Picks Flagged
114
Fight Slots
15
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 1951 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 227 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 114 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Waldo Cortes-Acosta ROI 1.4x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Shamil Gaziev 1.4x ROI
Waldo Cortes-Acosta weighted 1.0 Market 1.67 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Volkan Oezdemir vs Alonzo Menifield 1.18x ROI
Volkan Oezdemir weighted 1.15 Market 1.44 Crowd 1.16
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Shamil Gaziev 0.54x ROI
Shamil Gaziev weighted — Market 2.19 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Volkan Oezdemir vs Alonzo Menifield 0.77x ROI
Alonzo Menifield weighted 7.84 Market 2.77 Crowd 7.16
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Belal Muhammad vs Ian Machado Garry 0.82x ROI
Belal Muhammad weighted 7.12 Market 3.09 Crowd 5.89
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 14
Weighted model 85.7%
Pure crowd 85.7%
Market favourite 85.7%

Arman Tsarukyan vs Dan Hooker

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 560.59
ROI Momentum -15.12
Underdog Specialist -3.05
Favorite Reliability 242.47
Weight-Class Ace 39.18
Regional Familiarity 128.1
Value Pick Signal 49.7
Sample Size Confidence 468.6

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.