Event Selector

UFC on ESPN: Royval vs. Kape

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Dec 13, 2025 Past Las Vegas , Nevada , U.S. U S Total Weight 3728.238
Channels Engaged
240
Predictions Logged
2135
Value Picks Flagged
115
Fight Slots
14
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 2135 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 240 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 115 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Isaac Thomson ROI 1.66x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Joanderson Brito vs Isaac Thomson 1.66x ROI
Isaac Thomson weighted 1.0 Market 2.93 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Joanderson Brito vs Melsik Baghdasaryan 1.23x ROI
Joanderson Brito weighted 1.04 Market 1.37 Crowd 1.05
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Joanderson Brito vs Isaac Thomson 0.29x ROI
Joanderson Brito weighted — Market 1.41 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Joanderson Brito vs Melsik Baghdasaryan 0.72x ROI
Melsik Baghdasaryan weighted 23.37 Market 3.11 Crowd 21.83
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Sean Sharaf vs Steven Asplund 0.78x ROI
Sean Sharaf weighted 7.59 Market 2.85 Crowd 6.14
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 11
Weighted model 81.8%
Pure crowd 81.8%
Market favourite 90.9%

Brandon Royval vs Manel Kape

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 629.74
ROI Momentum -19.86
Underdog Specialist -7.38
Favorite Reliability 259.87
Weight-Class Ace 15.42
Regional Familiarity 137.1
Value Pick Signal 47.95
Sample Size Confidence 530.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.