Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Feb 07, 2026 Past Las Vegas , Nevada , U.S. U S Total Weight 4430.157
Channels Engaged
219
Predictions Logged
2199
Value Picks Flagged
148
Fight Slots
14
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 2199 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 219 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 148 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Gianni Vázquez ROI 1.84x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Javid Basharat vs Gianni Vázquez 1.84x ROI
Gianni Vázquez weighted 1.0 Market 6.12 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Amir Albazi vs Kyoji Horiguchi 1.14x ROI
Kyoji Horiguchi weighted 1.08 Market 1.28 Crowd 1.1
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Dustin Jacoby vs Julius Walker 1.13x ROI
Dustin Jacoby weighted 1.32 Market 1.6 Crowd 1.33
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Javid Basharat vs Gianni Vázquez 0.11x ROI
Javid Basharat weighted — Market 1.13 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Amir Albazi vs Kyoji Horiguchi 0.81x ROI
Amir Albazi weighted 13.0 Market 3.74 Crowd 10.87
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Dustin Jacoby vs Julius Walker 0.82x ROI
Julius Walker weighted 4.15 Market 2.36 Crowd 4.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 13
Weighted model 76.9%
Pure crowd 76.9%
Market favourite 84.6%

Mario Bautista vs Vinicius Oliveira

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 894.15
ROI Momentum -32.21
Underdog Specialist -17.58
Favorite Reliability 382.69
Weight-Class Ace 39.01
Regional Familiarity 152.55
Value Pick Signal 66.15
Sample Size Confidence 746.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.