Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Feb 21, 2026 Past Houston , Texas , U.S. U S Total Weight 6322.52
Channels Engaged
400
Predictions Logged
3501
Value Picks Flagged
242
Fight Slots
16
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 3501 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 400 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 242 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Josiah Harrell ROI 1.72x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Jacobe Smith vs Josiah Harrell 1.72x ROI
Josiah Harrell weighted 1.0 Market 3.56 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Jacobe Smith vs Ko Seok-hyeon 1.35x ROI
Jacobe Smith weighted 1.1 Market 1.8 Crowd 1.08
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Jacobe Smith vs Josiah Harrell 0.23x ROI
Jacobe Smith weighted — Market 1.3 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Jacobe Smith vs Ko Seok-hyeon 0.59x ROI
Ko Seok-hyeon weighted 10.64 Market 1.99 Crowd 13.36
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Serghei Spivac vs Ante Delija 0.79x ROI
Serghei Spivac weighted 3.5 Market 2.0 Crowd 3.78
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 13
Weighted model 53.8%
Pure crowd 38.5%
Market favourite 69.2%

Sean Strickland vs Anthony Hernandez

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 1092.51
ROI Momentum -38.66
Underdog Specialist -18.06
Favorite Reliability 462.54
Weight-Class Ace 91.64
Regional Familiarity 203.7
Value Pick Signal 115.85
Sample Size Confidence 912.0

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.