Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Feb 28, 2026 Past Mexico City , Mexico Mexico Total Weight 3441.737
Channels Engaged
213
Predictions Logged
1909
Value Picks Flagged
114
Fight Slots
17
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 1909 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 213 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 114 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Regina Tarin ROI 1.57x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Regina Tarin vs Ernesta KareckaitÄ— 1.57x ROI
Regina Tarin weighted 1.0 Market 2.31 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Regina Tarin vs Ernesta KareckaitÄ— 0.38x ROI
Ernesta Kareckaitė weighted — Market 1.62 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Imanol Rodríguez vs Kevin Borjas 0.77x ROI
Kevin Borjas weighted — Market 4.38 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Édgar Cháirez vs Felipe Bunes 0.79x ROI
Felipe Bunes weighted 12.08 Market 3.47 Crowd 11.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 83.3%
Pure crowd 83.3%
Market favourite 75.0%

Brandon Moreno vs Lone'er Kavanagh

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 589.5
ROI Momentum -22.43
Underdog Specialist -11.38
Favorite Reliability 281.0
Weight-Class Ace 35.45
Regional Familiarity 115.65
Value Pick Signal 53.55
Sample Size Confidence 491.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.