Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Mar 21, 2026 Past London , England United Kingdom Total Weight 5202.485
Channels Engaged
327
Predictions Logged
2775
Value Picks Flagged
151
Fight Slots
15
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 2775 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 327 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 151 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.88 Nathaniel Wood ROI 1.21x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Nathaniel Wood vs Losene Keita 1.21x ROI
Nathaniel Wood weighted 1.88 Market 3.06 Crowd 1.77
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Luke Riley vs Michael Aswell 1.19x ROI
Luke Riley weighted 1.15 Market 1.47 Crowd 1.15
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Nathaniel Wood vs Losene Keita 0.73x ROI
Losene Keita weighted 2.14 Market 1.36 Crowd 2.31
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Luke Riley vs Michael Aswell 0.76x ROI
Michael Aswell weighted 7.58 Market 2.71 Crowd 7.71
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Shaqueme Rock vs Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady 0.8x ROI
Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady weighted 3.47 Market 2.04 Crowd 3.59
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 83.3%
Pure crowd 83.3%
Market favourite 75.0%

Movsar Evloev vs Lerone Murphy

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 961.0
ROI Momentum -37.97
Underdog Specialist -10.13
Favorite Reliability 425.23
Weight-Class Ace 80.26
Regional Familiarity 148.35
Value Pick Signal 63.35
Sample Size Confidence 797.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.