Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Apr 04, 2026 Past Las Vegas , Nevada , U.S. U S Total Weight 2256.95
Channels Engaged
159
Predictions Logged
1015
Value Picks Flagged
39
Fight Slots
14
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 1015 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 159 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 39 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.39 Guilherme Pat ROI 1.21x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Guilherme Pat vs Thomas Petersen 1.21x ROI
Guilherme Pat weighted 1.39 Market 1.95 Crowd 1.36
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Dione Barbosa vs Melissa Gatto 1.2x ROI
Dione Barbosa weighted 1.35 Market 1.87 Crowd 1.39
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Guilherme Pat vs Thomas Petersen 0.73x ROI
Thomas Petersen weighted 3.57 Market 1.83 Crowd 3.8
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Dione Barbosa vs Melissa Gatto 0.74x ROI
Melissa Gatto weighted 3.85 Market 1.94 Crowd 3.58
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Alessandro Costa vs Stewart Nicoll 0.79x ROI
Stewart Nicoll weighted 27.14 Market 4.03 Crowd 27.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 13
Weighted model 69.2%
Pure crowd 69.2%
Market favourite 76.9%

Renato Moicano vs Chris Duncan

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 494.32
ROI Momentum -24.13
Underdog Specialist -0.36
Favorite Reliability 243.8
Weight-Class Ace 33.42
Regional Familiarity 68.1
Value Pick Signal 14.0
Sample Size Confidence 412.8

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.