Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

May 02, 2026 Past Perth , Australia Australia Total Weight 5207.122
Channels Engaged
329
Predictions Logged
2567
Value Picks Flagged
152
Fight Slots
13
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 2567 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 329 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 152 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.08 Jonathan Micallef ROI 1.23x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Jonathan Micallef vs Themba Gorimbo 1.23x ROI
Jonathan Micallef weighted 1.08 Market 1.45 Crowd 1.09
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Cameron Rowston vs Robert Bryczek 1.18x ROI
Cameron Rowston weighted 1.19 Market 1.52 Crowd 1.21
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Jonathan Micallef vs Themba Gorimbo 0.72x ROI
Themba Gorimbo weighted 13.09 Market 2.79 Crowd 11.75
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Cameron Rowston vs Robert Bryczek 0.77x ROI
Robert Bryczek weighted 6.32 Market 2.58 Crowd 5.76
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Shamil Gaziev vs Brando Peričić 0.78x ROI
Shamil Gaziev weighted 3.45 Market 1.95 Crowd 3.73
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 13
Weighted model 84.6%
Pure crowd 76.9%
Market favourite 84.6%

Jack Della Maddalena vs Carlos Prates

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 1053.44
ROI Momentum -41.7
Underdog Specialist 0.31
Favorite Reliability 465.02
Weight-Class Ace 97.8
Regional Familiarity 125.1
Value Pick Signal 60.55
Sample Size Confidence 879.6

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.