Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

May 16, 2026 Past Las Vegas , Nevada , U.S. U S Total Weight 3972.825
Channels Engaged
205
Predictions Logged
1832
Value Picks Flagged
122
Fight Slots
15
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 1832 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 205 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 122 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Christian Edwards ROI 1.71x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Modestas Bukauskas vs Christian Edwards 1.71x ROI
Christian Edwards weighted 1.0 Market 3.42 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Thomas Gantt vs Artur Minev 1.6x ROI
Artur Minev weighted 1.0 Market 2.52 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Modestas Bukauskas vs Rodolfo Bellato 1.28x ROI
Modestas Bukauskas weighted 1.21 Market 1.82 Crowd 1.23
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Modestas Bukauskas vs Christian Edwards 0.24x ROI
Modestas Bukauskas weighted — Market 1.32 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Thomas Gantt vs Artur Minev 0.34x ROI
Thomas Gantt weighted — Market 1.53 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Modestas Bukauskas vs Rodolfo Bellato 0.66x ROI
Rodolfo Bellato weighted 5.77 Market 1.95 Crowd 5.39
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 13
Weighted model 46.2%
Pure crowd 46.2%
Market favourite 69.2%

Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 882.14
ROI Momentum -43.27
Underdog Specialist -0.68
Favorite Reliability 356.89
Weight-Class Ace 49.44
Regional Familiarity 107.7
Value Pick Signal 51.8
Sample Size Confidence 736.8

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.