Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

May 30, 2026 Past Macau SAR , China China Total Weight 3153.277
Channels Engaged
128
Predictions Logged
1451
Value Picks Flagged
54
Fight Slots
15
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 1451 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 128 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 54 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Carlston Harris ROI 1.77x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Jake Matthews vs Carlston Harris 1.77x ROI
Carlston Harris weighted 1.0 Market 4.34 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Rei Tsuruya vs Luis Gurule 1.72x ROI
Luis Gurule weighted 1.0 Market 3.63 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Muslim Salikhov vs Jake Matthews 1.42x ROI
Jake Matthews weighted 1.05 Market 1.85 Crowd 1.06
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Jake Matthews vs Carlston Harris 0.17x ROI
Jake Matthews weighted — Market 1.2 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Rei Tsuruya vs Luis Gurule 0.22x ROI
Rei Tsuruya weighted — Market 1.28 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Muslim Salikhov vs Jake Matthews 0.53x ROI
Muslim Salikhov weighted 22.87 Market 1.96 Crowd 18.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 58.3%
Pure crowd 58.3%
Market favourite 66.7%

Song Yadong vs Deiveson Figueiredo

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 686.13
ROI Momentum -14.56
Underdog Specialist 9.43
Favorite Reliability 335.71
Weight-Class Ace 29.62
Regional Familiarity 66.6
Value Pick Signal 24.15
Sample Size Confidence 565.2

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.