Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Jun 06, 2026 Scheduled Las Vegas , Nevada , U.S. U S Total Weight 3281.734
Channels Engaged
121
Predictions Logged
1418
Value Picks Flagged
56
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 1418 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 121 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 56 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.12 Brendan Allen ROI 1.2x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Brendan Allen vs Edmen Shahbazyan 1.2x ROI
Brendan Allen weighted 1.12 Market 1.44 Crowd 1.15
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Ketlen Souza vs Ariane Carnelossi 1.2x ROI
Ketlen Souza weighted 1.06 Market 1.33 Crowd 1.07
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Brendan Allen vs Edmen Shahbazyan 0.75x ROI
Edmen Shahbazyan weighted 9.57 Market 2.79 Crowd 7.79
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Ketlen Souza vs Ariane Carnelossi 0.76x ROI
Ariane Carnelossi weighted 18.94 Market 3.37 Crowd 16.2
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Belal Muhammad vs Gabriel Bonfim 0.79x ROI
Gabriel Bonfim weighted 3.5 Market 2.03 Crowd 3.45
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Belal Muhammad vs Gabriel Bonfim

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 753.86
ROI Momentum -28.87
Underdog Specialist 0.35
Favorite Reliability 347.78
Weight-Class Ace 47.11
Regional Familiarity 91.95
Value Pick Signal 22.75
Sample Size Confidence 628.8

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.