Event Selector

UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Jun 07, 2025 Past Newark, New Jersey , U.S. U S Total Weight 2138.035
Channels Engaged
287
Predictions Logged
1299
Value Picks Flagged
156
Fight Slots
13
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 1299 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 287 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 156 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 3.68 Julianna Peña ROI 1.11x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Kayla Harrison vs Julianna Peña 1.11x ROI
Julianna Peña weighted 3.68 Market 6.09 Crowd 3.41
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Azamat Murzakanov vs Brendson Ribeiro 1.1x ROI
Azamat Murzakanov weighted 1.03 Market 1.15 Crowd 1.05
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Kayla Harrison vs Julianna Peña 0.84x ROI
Kayla Harrison weighted 1.37 Market 1.12 Crowd 1.42
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Azamat Murzakanov vs Brendson Ribeiro 0.84x ROI
Brendson Ribeiro weighted 37.35 Market 5.48 Crowd 21.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Andreas Gustafsson vs Khaos Williams 0.85x ROI
Khaos Williams weighted 1.95 Market 1.51 Crowd 1.92
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 13
Weighted model 76.9%
Pure crowd 76.9%
Market favourite 53.8%

Merab Dvalishvili vs Sean O'Malley

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 281.46
ROI Momentum -8.53
Underdog Specialist 0.11
Favorite Reliability 101.16
Weight-Class Ace 16.49
Regional Familiarity 114.6
Value Pick Signal 99.75
Sample Size Confidence 234.0

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.