Event Selector

UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Jun 07, 2025 Past Newark, New Jersey , U.S. U S Total Weight 2006.406
Channels Engaged
277
Predictions Logged
1234
Value Picks Flagged
155
Fight Slots
13
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 1234 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 277 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 155 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 3.34 Julianna Peña ROI 1.14x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Kayla Harrison vs Julianna Peña 1.14x ROI
Julianna Peña weighted 3.34 Market 6.09 Crowd 3.05
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Andreas Gustafsson vs Khaos Williams 1.11x ROI
Andreas Gustafsson weighted 1.99 Market 2.57 Crowd 2.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Kayla Harrison vs Julianna Peña 0.81x ROI
Kayla Harrison weighted 1.43 Market 1.12 Crowd 1.49
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Andreas Gustafsson vs Khaos Williams 0.83x ROI
Khaos Williams weighted 2.01 Market 1.51 Crowd 2.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Azamat Murzakanov vs Brendson Ribeiro 0.85x ROI
Brendson Ribeiro weighted 33.07 Market 5.48 Crowd 18.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 13
Weighted model 84.6%
Pure crowd 84.6%
Market favourite 53.8%

Merab Dvalishvili vs Sean O'Malley

Market Snapshot

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Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 254.83
ROI Momentum -6.96
Underdog Specialist -0.1
Favorite Reliability 88.9
Weight-Class Ace 14.44
Regional Familiarity 110.1
Value Pick Signal 99.4
Sample Size Confidence 211.8

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.