Event Selector

UFC on ESPN: Machado Garry vs. Prates

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Apr 26, 2025 Past Kansas City, Missouri , U.S. U S Total Weight 2885.128
Channels Engaged
222
Predictions Logged
1410
Value Picks Flagged
266
Fight Slots
14
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 1410 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 222 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 266 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.18 Evan Elder ROI 1.16x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Evan Elder vs Gauge Young 1.16x ROI
Evan Elder weighted 1.18 Market 1.46 Crowd 1.29
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Joselyne Edwards vs Chelsea Chandler 1.11x ROI
Joselyne Edwards weighted 1.16 Market 1.34 Crowd 1.18
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Evan Elder vs Gauge Young 0.79x ROI
Gauge Young weighted 6.54 Market 2.78 Crowd 4.5
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Joselyne Edwards vs Chelsea Chandler 0.83x ROI
Chelsea Chandler weighted 7.26 Market 3.27 Crowd 6.43
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Matt Schnell vs Jimmy Flick 0.86x ROI
Jimmy Flick weighted 3.57 Market 2.38 Crowd 3.13
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 14
Weighted model 85.7%
Pure crowd 85.7%
Market favourite 71.4%

Ian Machado Garry vs Carlos Prates

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 534.44
ROI Momentum -5.83
Underdog Specialist -1.31
Favorite Reliability 205.44
Weight-Class Ace 37.24
Regional Familiarity 122.25
Value Pick Signal 144.9
Sample Size Confidence 438.0

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.