Event Selector

UFC 312: du Plessis vs. Strickland 2

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Feb 08, 2025 Past Sydney , Australia Australia Total Weight 3115.37
Channels Engaged
271
Predictions Logged
1580
Value Picks Flagged
337
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 1580 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 271 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 337 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 2.27 Jack Jenkins ROI 1.09x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Gabriel Santos vs Jack Jenkins 1.09x ROI
Jack Jenkins weighted 2.27 Market 2.86 Crowd 2.03
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Gabriel Santos vs Jack Jenkins 0.85x ROI
Gabriel Santos weighted 1.79 Market 1.42 Crowd 1.97
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Wang Cong vs Bruna Brasil 0.9x ROI
Wang Cong weighted 1.51 Market 1.31 Crowd 1.53
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Aleksandre Topuria vs Colby Thicknesse 0.9x ROI
Colby Thicknesse weighted 6.11 Market 3.76 Crowd 4.83
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 11
Weighted model 72.7%
Pure crowd 81.8%
Market favourite 63.6%

Dricus du Plessis vs Sean Strickland

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 541.11
ROI Momentum -2.68
Underdog Specialist -7.94
Favorite Reliability 189.98
Weight-Class Ace 54.05
Regional Familiarity 145.2
Value Pick Signal 166.25
Sample Size Confidence 449.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.