Event Selector

UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Jan 18, 2025 Past Inglewood, California , U.S. U S Total Weight 1968.865
Channels Engaged
157
Predictions Logged
889
Value Picks Flagged
218
Fight Slots
13
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 889 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 157 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 218 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 2.75 Raoni Barcelos ROI 1.24x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Raoni Barcelos vs Payton Talbott 1.24x ROI
Raoni Barcelos weighted 2.75 Market 8.06 Crowd 2.6
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Raoni Barcelos vs Payton Talbott 0.7x ROI
Payton Talbott weighted 1.57 Market 1.07 Crowd 1.62
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Islam Makhachev vs Renato Moicano 0.73x ROI
Islam Makhachev weighted 1.5 Market 1.07 Crowd 1.56
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Azamat Bekoev vs Zachary Reese 0.75x ROI
Azamat Bekoev weighted 2.49 Market 1.53 Crowd 2.4
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 13
Weighted model 61.5%
Pure crowd 69.2%
Market favourite 61.5%

Islam Makhachev vs Renato Moicano

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 369.21
ROI Momentum 4.12
Underdog Specialist 5.77
Favorite Reliability 148.74
Weight-Class Ace 42.48
Regional Familiarity 100.5
Value Pick Signal 106.05
Sample Size Confidence 303.0

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.