Event Selector

UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Nov 16, 2024 Past New York City, New York , U.S. U S Total Weight 2841.999
Channels Engaged
329
Predictions Logged
1556
Value Picks Flagged
270
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 1556 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 329 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 270 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 2.4 Veronica Hardy ROI 1.32x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Eduarda Moura vs Veronica Hardy 1.32x ROI
Veronica Hardy weighted 2.4 Market 10.72 Crowd 2.17
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Eduarda Moura vs Veronica Hardy 0.62x ROI
Eduarda Moura weighted 1.71 Market 1.04 Crowd 1.85
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Jim Miller vs Damon Jackson 0.88x ROI
Damon Jackson weighted 1.76 Market 1.45 Crowd 1.97
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
David Onama vs Roberto Romero 0.89x ROI
David Onama weighted 1.22 Market 1.08 Crowd 1.31
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 75.0%
Pure crowd 75.0%
Market favourite 75.0%

Jon Jones vs Stipe Miocic

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 427.72
ROI Momentum -2.56
Underdog Specialist -2.26
Favorite Reliability 183.46
Weight-Class Ace 41.78
Regional Familiarity 139.2
Value Pick Signal 145.25
Sample Size Confidence 353.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.