Event Selector

UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Oct 05, 2024 Past Salt Lake City, Utah , U.S. U S Total Weight 1313.725
Channels Engaged
67
Predictions Logged
515
Value Picks Flagged
153
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 515 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 67 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 153 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.6 José Aldo ROI 1.15x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Mario Bautista vs José Aldo 1.15x ROI
José Aldo weighted 1.6 Market 2.12 Crowd 1.58
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Tecia Pennington vs Carla Esparza 1.11x ROI
Tecia Pennington weighted 1.29 Market 1.51 Crowd 1.4
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Mario Bautista vs José Aldo 0.8x ROI
Mario Bautista weighted 2.66 Market 1.75 Crowd 2.73
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Tecia Pennington vs Carla Esparza 0.83x ROI
Carla Esparza weighted 4.4 Market 2.54 Crowd 3.5
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Roman Dolidze vs Kevin Holland 0.86x ROI
Kevin Holland weighted 2.12 Market 1.63 Crowd 2.24
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 66.7%
Pure crowd 66.7%
Market favourite 75.0%

Alex Pereira vs Khalil Rountree Jr.

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 296.52
ROI Momentum -3.93
Underdog Specialist -6.25
Favorite Reliability 123.69
Weight-Class Ace 17.2
Regional Familiarity 59.25
Value Pick Signal 66.85
Sample Size Confidence 245.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.