Event Selector

UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Borralho

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Aug 24, 2024 Past Total Weight 529.93
Channels Engaged
22
Predictions Logged
194
Value Picks Flagged
45
Fight Slots
11
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 194 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 22 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 45 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.64 Dennis Buzukja ROI 1.2x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Francis Marshall vs Dennis Buzukja 1.2x ROI
Dennis Buzukja weighted 1.64 Market 2.46 Crowd 1.67
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Viacheslav Borshchev vs James Llontop 1.2x ROI
James Llontop weighted 1.83 Market 2.85 Crowd 1.83
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Viacheslav Borshchev vs James Llontop 0.74x ROI
Viacheslav Borshchev weighted 2.21 Market 1.4 Crowd 2.2
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Francis Marshall vs Dennis Buzukja 0.75x ROI
Francis Marshall weighted 2.55 Market 1.56 Crowd 2.5
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Jacqueline Cavalcanti vs Josiane Nunes 0.78x ROI
Jacqueline Cavalcanti weighted 1.89 Market 1.34 Crowd 2.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 11
Weighted model 72.7%
Pure crowd 81.8%
Market favourite 81.8%

Francis Marshall vs Dennis Buzukja

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 133.42
ROI Momentum 2.82
Underdog Specialist -0.98
Favorite Reliability 55.15
Weight-Class Ace 19.23
Value Pick Signal 18.9
Sample Size Confidence 107.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.