Event Selector

UFC 305: du Plessis vs. Adesanya

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Aug 18, 2024 Past Perth , Australia Australia Total Weight 1107.224
Channels Engaged
29
Predictions Logged
382
Value Picks Flagged
95
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 382 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 29 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 95 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 2.32 Dan Hooker ROI 1.17x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Dan Hooker vs Mateusz Gamrot 1.17x ROI
Dan Hooker weighted 2.32 Market 3.8 Crowd 2.2
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Carlos Prates vs Li Jingliang 1.15x ROI
Carlos Prates weighted 1.08 Market 1.28 Crowd 1.09
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Dan Hooker vs Mateusz Gamrot 0.77x ROI
Mateusz Gamrot weighted 1.76 Market 1.25 Crowd 1.83
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Carlos Prates vs Li Jingliang 0.8x ROI
Li Jingliang weighted 13.92 Market 3.72 Crowd 12.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Dricus du Plessis vs Israel Adesanya 0.84x ROI
Israel Adesanya weighted 2.68 Market 1.87 Crowd 2.67
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 58.3%
Pure crowd 66.7%
Market favourite 33.3%

Dricus du Plessis vs Israel Adesanya

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 266.48
ROI Momentum 5.37
Underdog Specialist 2.78
Favorite Reliability 119.45
Weight-Class Ace 23.54
Regional Familiarity 43.2
Value Pick Signal 49.0
Sample Size Confidence 215.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.