Event Selector

UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Jun 22, 2024 Past Riyadh , Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Total Weight 2452.663
Channels Engaged
133
Predictions Logged
1038
Value Picks Flagged
289
Fight Slots
11
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 1038 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 133 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 289 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.16 Nasrat Haqparast ROI 1.15x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Nasrat Haqparast vs Jared Gordon 1.15x ROI
Nasrat Haqparast weighted 1.16 Market 1.42 Crowd 1.21
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Magomed Gadzhiyasulov vs Brendson Ribeiro 1.14x ROI
Magomed Gadzhiyasulov weighted 1.11 Market 1.3 Crowd 1.12
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Nasrat Haqparast vs Jared Gordon 0.8x ROI
Jared Gordon weighted 7.09 Market 2.89 Crowd 5.88
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Magomed Gadzhiyasulov vs Brendson Ribeiro 0.81x ROI
Brendson Ribeiro weighted 10.37 Market 3.54 Crowd 9.25
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Felipe Lima vs Muhammad Naimov 0.86x ROI
Felipe Lima weighted 2.55 Market 1.88 Crowd 3.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 11
Weighted model 63.6%
Pure crowd 63.6%
Market favourite 63.6%

Robert Whittaker vs Ikram Aliskerov

Market Snapshot

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Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 502.53
ROI Momentum -1.17
Underdog Specialist 0.21
Favorite Reliability 199.31
Weight-Class Ace 49.63
Regional Familiarity 107.25
Value Pick Signal 143.5
Sample Size Confidence 413.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.