Event Selector

UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Jun 01, 2024 Past Newark, New Jersey , U.S. U S Total Weight 3036.238
Channels Engaged
180
Predictions Logged
1327
Value Picks Flagged
326
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 1327 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 180 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 326 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.67 Philip Rowe ROI 1.19x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Jake Matthews vs Philip Rowe 1.19x ROI
Philip Rowe weighted 1.67 Market 2.44 Crowd 1.71
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Ailín Pérez vs Joselyne Edwards 1.09x ROI
Ailín Pérez weighted 1.32 Market 1.51 Crowd 1.37
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Jake Matthews vs Philip Rowe 0.75x ROI
Jake Matthews weighted 2.49 Market 1.54 Crowd 2.4
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Ailín Pérez vs Joselyne Edwards 0.85x ROI
Joselyne Edwards weighted 4.1 Market 2.53 Crowd 3.69
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Islam Makhachev vs Dustin Poirier 0.85x ROI
Islam Makhachev weighted 1.42 Market 1.17 Crowd 1.44
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 83.3%
Pure crowd 83.3%
Market favourite 66.7%

Islam Makhachev vs Dustin Poirier

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 604.43
ROI Momentum -1.72
Underdog Specialist -0.69
Favorite Reliability 214.55
Weight-Class Ace 80.42
Regional Familiarity 138.0
Value Pick Signal 173.25
Sample Size Confidence 501.0

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.