Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

May 18, 2024 Past Las Vegas, Nevada , U.S. U S Total Weight 2044.761
Channels Engaged
99
Predictions Logged
804
Value Picks Flagged
211
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 804 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 99 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 211 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.31 Themba Gorimbo ROI 1.18x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Themba Gorimbo vs Ramiz Brahimaj 1.18x ROI
Themba Gorimbo weighted 1.31 Market 1.73 Crowd 1.36
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Angela Hill vs Luana Pinheiro 1.13x ROI
Angela Hill weighted 1.39 Market 1.68 Crowd 1.46
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Themba Gorimbo vs Ramiz Brahimaj 0.76x ROI
Ramiz Brahimaj weighted 4.2 Market 2.1 Crowd 3.78
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Angela Hill vs Luana Pinheiro 0.83x ROI
Luana Pinheiro weighted 3.58 Market 2.23 Crowd 3.19
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Khaos Williams vs Carlston Harris 0.84x ROI
Carlston Harris weighted 3.14 Market 2.09 Crowd 2.92
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 75.0%
Pure crowd 75.0%
Market favourite 75.0%

Lerone Murphy vs Edson Barboza

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 451.64
ROI Momentum -3.92
Underdog Specialist 3.18
Favorite Reliability 185.52
Weight-Class Ace 24.54
Regional Familiarity 87.15
Value Pick Signal 115.85
Sample Size Confidence 376.8

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.