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UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Costa v Erosa Featherweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight. Go Pro →
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Consensus 65 picks · conf 74/99
Costa 50
15 Erosa
MbHBOF pick Costa
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
MCCosta 26-7 VS 0-0 ErosaJE
5'10" height 6'1"
145 lb weight 145 lb
71" reach 74"
29 age 36
Southpaw stance Southpaw
Recent form last five, most recent first
Costa26-7
L AA Allen Decision · R5 May '26
W DI Ige KO/TKO · R1 Feb '26
W MC Charrière KO/TKO · R1 Dec '25
W JE Erosa Decision · R3 May '25
W CR Rodriguez Decision · R3 Mar '25
Erosa0-0
L LD Douglas KO/TKO · R1 Mar '26
L MC Costa Decision · R3 May '25
W DE Elkins KO/TKO · R1 Apr '25
W CR Rodriguez Submission · R1 Jul '24
W RR Ramos Submission · R1 Mar '24
The model read AI research · Pro
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only Go Pro →
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
VI VinceMMA picks Melquizael Costa VALUE “I'm going to go Costa by unanimous decision.”
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Julian Erosa “I'm going Julian Erosa.”
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Melquizael Costa “I'm picking Costa by decision.”
MR MMA ROACH picks Melquizael Costa “I'm gonna pick him to win.”
JN JNapsMMAshorts picks Melquizael Costa “I got Melquizael Costa getting it done.”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Melquizael Costa “I'm going Costa.” $1.56
P® Pro Schmo BETS ® picks Melquizael Costa VALUE “you're riding Melquizael Costa why because Philly got submitted... Julian could catch an arm bar on Mezacel.”
CM Coty MMA picks Julian Erosa “Uh I like Melquizael Costa to win”
CM Coty MMA picks Melquizael Costa “I like Melquizael Costa to win”
MT MMA TODAY picks Julian Erosa “But I'm taking Julian Erosa for that one.”
GM GC MMA picks Julian Erosa VALUE “I'm going to go Julian Erosa here.”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Melquizael Costa “I'm going to be picking Melquiza El Melquizael Costa to win.” $1.57