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Mingyang vs SmithMain Card · Light Heavyweight
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Onama vs ChikadzeMain Card · Catchweight
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Magomedov vs PereiraMain Card · Middleweight
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Brown vs DalbyMain Card · Welterweight
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Aliskerov vs MunizMain Card · Middleweight
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Schnell vs FlickPreliminary Card · Flyweight
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Elder vs YoungPreliminary Card · Lightweight
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Gutiérrez vs CastañedaPreliminary Card · Featherweight
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Blackshear vs HeiliPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
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Wellmaker vs SaaimanPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
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Prophecy read
Gutiérrez v Castañeda
Featherweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
CGGutiérrez 8-10-1
VS
21-7 CastañedaJC
Gutiérrez 8-10-1
VS
21-7 CastañedaJC
6'6"
height
—
222 lb
weight
—
78"
reach
—
—
age
34
Orthodox
stance
Switch
3.6
strikes landed / min
4.7
52%
striking accuracy
50%
4.5
strikes absorbed / min
5.2
72%
striking defence
54%
0.6
takedowns / 15 min
1.8
48%
takedown accuracy
35%
53%
takedown defence
71%
1.0
submissions / 15 min
0.1
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Gutiérrez8-10-1
L
FB
Basharat
Oct '25
Basharat
Oct '25
W
JC
Castañeda
Apr '25
Castañeda
Apr '25
W
QL
Le
Aug '24
Le
Aug '24
L
SY
Yadong
Dec '23
Yadong
Dec '23
W
AH
Heili
Oct '23
Heili
Oct '23
Castañeda21-7
L
CG
Gutiérrez
Apr '25
Gutiérrez
Apr '25
L
DM
Marcos
Jun '24
Marcos
Jun '24
W
KK
Kyung-ho
Nov '23
Kyung-ho
Nov '23
W
MG
Gafurov
Jun '23
Gafurov
Jun '23
L
DS
Santos
Oct '22
Santos
Oct '22
The model read
AI research · Pro
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
TD
The Rambling Dad picks Chris Gutiérrez VALUE
“Chris Gutiérrez Gutierrez ... I'm going with Chris Gutiérrez Gutierrez all day”
The Rambling Dad picks Chris Gutiérrez VALUE
“Chris Gutiérrez Gutierrez ... I'm going with Chris Gutiérrez Gutierrez all day”
CP
Capper Comparison Picks picks Chris Gutiérrez
“I'm gonna pick Chris Gutiérrez. ... So, I'm on Chris Gutiérrez on this Chris Gutiérrez minus 150.”
$1.67
Capper Comparison Picks picks Chris Gutiérrez
“I'm gonna pick Chris Gutiérrez. ... So, I'm on Chris Gutiérrez on this Chris Gutiérrez minus 150.”
$1.67
T™
TheWagerZone ™ picks Chris Gutiérrez
“I'm gonna be picking Chris Gutiérrez to win this one”
TheWagerZone ™ picks Chris Gutiérrez
“I'm gonna be picking Chris Gutiérrez to win this one”
FE
FenceHugMMA picks John Castañeda VALUE
“I'm going to roll with John John Castañedañeda here. Um yeah, John Castañeda is the underdog. I like those odds. We're going to go John Castañeda is the pick.”
FenceHugMMA picks John Castañeda VALUE
“I'm going to roll with John John Castañedañeda here. Um yeah, John Castañeda is the underdog. I like those odds. We're going to go John Castañeda is the pick.”
BB
Beat The Line Broadcast picks Chris Gutiérrez
“I think GTD is uh is chalky, but I think it's kind of safe.”
Beat The Line Broadcast picks Chris Gutiérrez
“I think GTD is uh is chalky, but I think it's kind of safe.”
WP
We Want Picks picks John Castañeda
“I am going to pick him.”
We Want Picks picks John Castañeda
“I am going to pick him.”
LM
Luis MMA picks Chris Gutiérrez
“yo creo que esta pelea la va a ganar y va a poder reconducir su carrera”
Luis MMA picks Chris Gutiérrez
“yo creo que esta pelea la va a ganar y va a poder reconducir su carrera”
LI
LiamthemaestroMMA picks Chris Gutiérrez VALUE
“I think Chris Gutiérrez is gonna show John Castañeda that there's levels to this and he has shown that he's a better fighter”
LiamthemaestroMMA picks Chris Gutiérrez VALUE
“I think Chris Gutiérrez is gonna show John Castañeda that there's levels to this and he has shown that he's a better fighter”
GM
GLO MMA picks Chris Gutiérrez
“go and pick Chris Gutiérrez to win by Chris Gutiérrez decision”
GLO MMA picks Chris Gutiérrez
“go and pick Chris Gutiérrez to win by Chris Gutiérrez decision”
MG
MMA Stat Guy picks Chris Gutiérrez
“I think he's going to get it done by decision.”
MMA Stat Guy picks Chris Gutiérrez
“I think he's going to get it done by decision.”
OH
OhioPlayer picks John Castañeda
“I'm going with John Castañeda.”
OhioPlayer picks John Castañeda
“I'm going with John Castañeda.”
MN
MMA Lock of the Night picks Chris Gutiérrez
“Look for Chris Gutiérrez Gutiérrez to touch him up and give us a classic Chris Gutiérrez Gutiérrez performance, winning this fight on the scorecards.”
MMA Lock of the Night picks Chris Gutiérrez
“Look for Chris Gutiérrez Gutiérrez to touch him up and give us a classic Chris Gutiérrez Gutiérrez performance, winning this fight on the scorecards.”