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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Holloway v Gaethje Lightweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight. Go Pro →
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Consensus 82 picks · conf 79/99
Holloway 45
37 Gaethje
IGMTJP pick Holloway
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
MHHolloway 27-9 VS 27-5 GaethjeJG
5'11" height 5'11"
155 lb weight 155 lb
69" reach 70"
34 age 37
Orthodox stance Orthodox
Recent form last five, most recent first
Holloway27-9
L CO Oliveira Decision · R5 Mar '26
W DP Poirier Decision · R5 Jul '25
L IT Topuria KO/TKO · R3 Oct '24
W JG Gaethje KO/TKO · R5 Apr '24
W JC Chan-sung KO/TKO · R3 Aug '23
Gaethje27-5
W IT Topuria KO/TKO · R4 Jun '26
W PP Pimblett Decision · R5 Jan '26
W RF Fiziev Decision · R3 Mar '25
L MH Holloway KO/TKO · R5 Apr '24
W DP Poirier KO/TKO · R2 Jul '23
The model read AI research · Pro
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only Go Pro →
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
UF UFS picks Max Holloway “declaring the winner by knock out Max Holloway”
RU RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Max Holloway “love Max Holloway for this um I I just think Max Holloway”
MP Mike's MMA Picks picks Max Holloway “Max Holloway is going to walk away Victorious”
TD The Rambling Dad picks Max Holloway “I am going to go with Max Holloway makes five I'NOT_IN_ROSTER_15 picking Max Holloway on this Max Holloway”
OS Once Upon A Slugfest picks Max Holloway “official pick is Max Hollow”
TH TheMacLife picks Justin Gaethje VALUE “this is everything without a win I don't get that shot”
EB ESPN BET picks Max Holloway VALUE “Holloway is going to be live here he can go all five rounds he can take damage the volume's there” $2.30
EB ESPN BET picks Justin Gaethje VALUE “I'm going with Justin gagei here” $1.67
SD Skyler Dagley picks Max Holloway “I'm going to take Max Holloway Max Holloway Holloway and I think I think Max Holloway Hollow is going to get the decision nod over Justin Gaethje gatei”
SA Stokastic DFS - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Max Holloway VALUE “I'm picking Max Hollow to win picking to win either by decision or maybe a late finish”
KU Kamaru Usman picks Justin Gaethje “everybody know I got a ride with my brother Justin Gaethje on this one”
GC Gethin Ellis Coaching picks Max Holloway “I don't think Justin Gaethje wants it I really do think Max Holloway wins”