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Aspinall vs PavlovichMain Card · Heavyweight
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Denis vs FrevolaMain Card · Lightweight
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Lopes vs SabatiniMain Card · Featherweight
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Erceg vs CostaPreliminary Card · Flyweight
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Sadykhov vs BorshchevPreliminary Card · Lightweight
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Gordon vs MadsenEarly Preliminary Card · Lightweight
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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Saint Denis v Frevola
Lightweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
BD
Saint Denis 17-3
VS
11-5-1 FrevolaMF
Saint Denis 17-3
VS
11-5-1 FrevolaMF
5'11"
height
5'9"
156 lb
weight
155 lb
73"
reach
71"
30
age
36
Southpaw
stance
Orthodox
4.4
strikes landed / min
4.6
40%
striking accuracy
43%
5.0
strikes absorbed / min
3.5
73%
striking defence
68%
1.9
takedowns / 15 min
1.0
57%
takedown accuracy
70%
54%
takedown defence
72%
1.7
submissions / 15 min
1.6
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Saint Denis17-3
W
DH
Hooker
Feb '26
Hooker
Feb '26
W
BD
Dariush
Nov '25
Dariush
Nov '25
W
MR
Ruffy
Sep '25
Ruffy
Sep '25
W
KP
Prepolec
May '25
Prepolec
May '25
L
RM
Moicano
Sep '24
Moicano
Sep '24
Frevola11-5-1
L
KN
Nelson
Oct '25
Nelson
Oct '25
L
FZ
Ziam
Sep '24
Ziam
Sep '24
L
BD
Denis
Nov '23
Denis
Nov '23
W
DD
Dober
May '23
Dober
May '23
W
OA
Azaitar
Nov '22
Azaitar
Nov '22
The model read
AI research · Pro
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
RU
RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Benoît Saint Denis
“I do like Benoît Saint Denis in this fight”
TP
The City Life Project picks Benoît Saint Denis VALUE
“I think rebec is going to school him here I think rebec is going to school him”
OS
Once Upon A Slugfest picks Benoît Saint Denis VALUE
“I picked Benoît Saint Mackenzie Dernenis”
LM
Leftlane MMA picks Benoît Saint Denis VALUE
“I'm taking nazim sakov at minus 141 on the money line”
$1.71
TB
Totally Blitzed picks Benoît Saint Denis
“so you're not going Steamroller I can't steamroll this one bro”
LO
Luke O'Libre picks Benoît Saint Denis
“we'll go with the like favorite there we'll take nazim”
KU
Kunath picks Matt Frevola VALUE
“I think you should have the other side of this matchup in your player pool as well but do not sleep on that Matt Frevola knockout upside”
DS
Dynes Sports picks Benoît Saint Denis
“I'm on Benoît Saint Denis ... I'm going to favor Benoît Saint Denis”
MB
Michael Bisping picks Matt Frevola
“I think Ben was s might take that”
TH
TheWeasle picks Benoît Saint Denis
“I ultimately do pick Beno St Denise to win this”
PP
Pick Pocket Podcast picks Matt Frevola VALUE
“I'm going Matt foli here plus 186 guys I think he might end up knocking out St Dennis”
$2.86