UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · breakdown

UFC Vegas 119 Picks and Breakdowns: A Sick Flyweight Rematch With Even Higher Stakes

2 weeks ago 8W–6L · +3.5u

Picks, timestamped entry price locked at moment of pick · line tracked since · best price in any region · close = day before the event

Pick timeline moneylineprop

0:0022:3845:1767:56≈90:34

Otari Tanzilovi v Shane Collins MONEYLINE LOST -1.0u

“I think Otari Tanzilovi moneyline makes sense.”

fight iq ↗

Line since pick CLV −3%

◆ entry$2.85 → close$2.95

entry: BetOnline.ag · best in any region at publish · graded at close consensus

Karol Rosa v Luana Santos MONEYLINE LOST -1.0u

“any money I put down was on Karol Rosa.”

fight iq ↗

Line since pick CLV −2%

◆ entry$1.91 → close$1.95

entry: Coolbet · best in any region at publish · graded at close consensus

Gastón Bolaños v Michael Aswell Jr. MONEYLINE WON +3.3u

“I had to take Geston Banos um at that part.”

fight iq ↗

Line since pick CLV −2%

◆ entry$4.50 → close$4.60

entry: Grosvenor · best in any region at publish · graded at close consensus

MJ Michael Aswell Jr. v Gastón Bolaños MONEYLINE LOST -1.0u

“if you're going to go Michael Aswell Jr. specifically, I'd go by decision.”

fight iq ↗

Line since pick CLV +0%

◆ entry$1.25 → close$1.25

entry: BetOnline.ag · best in any region at publish · graded at close consensus

MJ Michael Aswell Jr. v Gastón Bolaños PROP · DECISION LOST -1.0u

“if you're going to go Michael Aswell Jr. specifically, I'd go by decision.”

fight iq ↗

Prop price at publish -1.0u

$2.21

DECISION priced off sportsbook closing consensus (BestFightOdds median)

Allan Nascimento v Mitch Raposo MONEYLINE LOST -1.0u

“I don't dislike at all Allan Nascimento.”

fight iq ↗

Line since pick CLV +0%

◆ entry$1.62 → close$1.62

entry: BetAnything · best in any region at publish · graded at close consensus

BM Beatriz Mesquita v Melissa Mullins MONEYLINE WON +0.2u

“I'm going to be rooting for Beatriz Mesquita in this fight.”

fight iq ↗

Line since pick CLV −2%

◆ entry$1.18 → close$1.20

entry: Betway · best in any region at publish · graded at close consensus

BM Beatriz Mesquita v Melissa Mullins PROP · SUBMISSION WON

“B is minus 600. Be by submission”

fight iq ↗

Analyst’s stated line —

no market data captured for this fight

Kevin Borjas v André Lima MONEYLINE WON +4.5u

“I definitely put, you know, a little sprinkled a little bit on Kevin Borha's money line.”

fight iq ↗

Line since pick CLV −1%

◆ entry$6.20 → close$6.25

entry: Ladbrokes AU · best in any region at publish · graded at close consensus

Vinicius Oliveira v Andre Fili MONEYLINE WON +0.3u

“I definitely use Vinicius Oliveira in uh several DFS lineups this week too.”

fight iq ↗

Line since pick CLV +2%

◆ entry$1.40 → close$1.37

entry: Fliff · best in any region at publish · graded at close consensus

Murtazali Magomedov v Melsik Baghdasaryan MONEYLINE WON +0.3u

“I'm played him plenty in DFS”

fight iq ↗

Line since pick CLV +0%

◆ entry$1.33 → close$1.33

entry: BetAnything · best in any region at publish · graded at close consensus

Navajo Stirling v Ion Cuțelaba MONEYLINE WON +0.3u

“I think by like Navajo Stirling by decision or by knockout, method of victory, double chance”

fight iq ↗

Line since pick CLV −1%

◆ entry$1.33 → close$1.34

entry: Betfair Sportsbook · best in any region at publish · graded at close consensus

Manel Kape v Kyoji Horiguchi MONEYLINE WON +0.6u

“Manel Kape Money Line by knockout or by decision.”

fight iq ↗

Line since pick CLV +0%

◆ entry$1.68 → close$1.68

entry: Pinnacle · best in any region at publish · graded at close consensus

Kyoji Horiguchi v Manel Kape MONEYLINE LOST -1.0u

“Koji Kyoji Horiguchi Moneyline is fine.”

fight iq ↗

Line since pick CLV +0%

◆ entry$2.40 → close$2.40

entry: Betsson · best in any region at publish · graded at close consensus