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UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett
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JG PP Gaethje vs PimblettMain Card · Lightweight SO SY O'Malley vs YadongMain Card · Bantamweight WC DL Cortes-Acosta vs LewisMain Card · Heavyweight AA JS Allen vs SilvaMain Card · Featherweight NK MB Krylov vs BukauskasPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight UN DF Nurmagomedov vs FigueiredoPreliminary Card · Catchweight AP CJ Perez vs JohnsonPreliminary Card · Catchweight NS RN Silva vs NamajunasMain Card · Women'S Flyweight JH DF Hokit vs FreemanEarly Preliminary Card · Heavyweight AG AP Gautier vs PulyaevPreliminary Card · Middleweight AF TM Fugitt vs MillerEarly Preliminary Card · Welterweight
BEST PRICE Prophecy read Nurmagomedov v Figueiredo Catchweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight. Go Pro →
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Consensus 288 picks · conf 99/99
Nurmagomedov 249
39 Figueiredo
OKMCCI pick Nurmagomedov
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
UNNurmagomedov 19-1 VS 25-6-1 FigueiredoDF
5'8" height 5'5"
136 lb weight 138 lb
69" reach 68"
30 age 38
Orthodox stance Orthodox
Recent form last five, most recent first
Nurmagomedov19-1
W DF Figueiredo Decision · R3 Jan '26
W MB Bautista Decision · R3 Oct '25
L MD Dvalishvili Decision · R5 Jan '25
W CS Sandhagen Decision · R5 Aug '24
W BA Almakhan Decision · R3 Mar '24
Figueiredo25-6-1
L SY Yadong Submission · R2 May '26
L UN Nurmagomedov Decision · R3 Jan '26
W MJ Jackson Decision · R3 Oct '25
L CS Sandhagen KO/TKO · R2 May '25
L PY Yan Decision · R5 Nov '24
The model read AI research · Pro
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
MA Mustafa Abutair picks Deiveson Figueiredo VALUE “I could even see Omar finishing him in two rounds on the ground with ground and pound dooror submission.”
FI FightCircuit picks Umar Nurmagomedov “I think Umar Nurmagomedov is going to end up sitting on Deiveson Figueiredo for a victoff”
KM Keep it a Buck Media picks Umar Nurmagomedov
LI liltoaster picks Deiveson Figueiredo “I'm going with Deiveson Figueiredo because he kind of looks like Chris Michael Johnson.”
LI liltoaster picks Umar Nurmagomedov “I'm gonna go Umar Nurmagomedov.”
FI FIGHTBLOODLINE picks Umar Nurmagomedov “I think Umar is going to dominate this fight wrestling for three rounds.”
CO CouchWarrior1 picks Umar Nurmagomedov “I think he's only going to win this by points... it's by points it's by points”
WA WARTIMEMMA picks Umar Nurmagomedov “I got Umar Nurmagomedov. I'm going to go with an Umar Nurmagomedov decision.”
TP The Touch Gloves Podcast picks Deiveson Figueiredo VALUE “I am going to predict an Umar, either an Umar decision or an Umar submission.”
BS Betting Weekly Studios picks Umar Nurmagomedov “probably take Umar Nurmagomedov by sub”
MM MMAFightingonSBN picks Umar Nurmagomedov “it's going to be a long day for Deiveson Figueiredo.”
SP SportsLine picks Umar Nurmagomedov “Look, I love Umar Nurmagomedov in I've seen Umar Nurmagomedov as high as a 16 Umar Nurmagomedov by knockout and Umar Nurmagomedov off trains with Islam”