MMA Prophecy
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UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2
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MH CO Holloway vs OliveiraMain Card · Lightweight CB RR Borralho vs RidderMain Card · Middleweight RF RJ Font vs Rosas Jr.Main Card · Bantamweight DD MJ Dober vs JohnsonMain Card · Lightweight GR BF Rodrigues vs FerreiraMain Card · Middleweight CG XL Garbrandt vs LongPreliminary Card · Bantamweight RT AM Turcios vs MontesPreliminary Card · Featherweight CD NT Durden vs TumendemberelPreliminary Card · Flyweight SM JA Mudaerji vs AguilarEarly Preliminary Card · Flyweight LF RB Fernandez vs BellatoEarly Preliminary Card · Light Heavyweight DJ CB Johnson vs BrundagePreliminary Card · Middleweight RT DN Tobias vs NurgozhayEarly Preliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
BEST PRICE Prophecy read Tobias v Nurgozhay Light Heavyweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight. Go Pro →
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Consensus 151 picks · conf 99/99
Tobias 133
18 Nurgozhay
CMMTMU pick Tobias
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
RTTobias 0-0 VS 10-2 NurgozhayDN
6'1" height 6'2"
203 lb weight 205 lb
74" reach 74"
23 age 29
Orthodox stance Southpaw
Recent form last five, most recent first
Tobias0-0
L DN Nurgozhay Decision · R3 Mar '26
Nurgozhay10-2
W RT Tobias Decision · R3 Mar '26
L US Satybaldiev Submission · R1 Aug '25
L BR Ribeiro Submission · R2 Mar '25
The model read AI research · Pro
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only Go Pro →
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
DM DMan&MariPulls picks Rafael Tobias “I think we got to rock with Rafael Tobias.”
WB WeeklyMMA Breakdowns picks Rafael Tobias “I'm taking uh Rafael Tobias by sub in round one.”
DY DylanMMA picks Rafael Tobias “I'll go Rafael Tobias.”
DY DylanMMA picks Diyar Nurgozhay “I'll go with him by sub, I guess.”
MT Mic Talks picks Rafael Tobias VALUE “Rafael Tobias to get it done by submission”
AN AntUFC picks Rafael Tobias VALUE “I'm going to go off TKO by Rafael Tobias”
KM Keep it a Buck Media picks Rafael Tobias “give me Rafael Tobias to win his UFC debut, but by submission, I think that's the way to go.”
LM Lightning MMA picks Rafael Tobias VALUE “Rafael Tobias by first submission”
TD The DubCast picks Rafael Tobias “We're going with Rafael Tobias.”
JE JetChaosMMA picks Rafael Tobias VALUE “So give me Rafael Tobias again. This I you guys don't really need an explanation on this. He's got half an inch of reach on him. He's younger. He's got total momentum here.”
VM Voice of MMA picks Rafael Tobias VALUE “I'm taking Rafael Tobias minus 180 to win this fight” $1.56
NI Nick23mma picks Rafael Tobias “I'm going to go with Rafael Tobias Subie Diyar Nurgozhay in the first two rounds.”