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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Gastelum v Rodriguez Middleweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus 74 picks · conf 77/99
Gastelum 47
27 Rodriguez
GPBLHM pick Gastelum
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
KGGastelum 21-10 VS 18-5 RodriguezDR
5'9" height 6'1"
191 lb weight 170 lb
71" reach 74"
34 age 39
Southpaw stance Southpaw
Recent form last five, most recent first
Gastelum21-10
L VL Luque Submission · R1 Apr '26
W DS Stoltzfus Decision · R3 Sep '25
L JP Pyfer Decision · R3 Jun '25
W DR Rodriguez Decision · R3 Jun '24
L SB Brady Submission · R3 Dec '23
Rodriguez18-5
W KH Holland Decision · R3 Jul '25
W SP Ponzinibbio KO/TKO · R3 May '25
W AM Morono Decision · R3 Oct '24
L KG Gastelum Decision · R3 Jun '24
L IG Garry KO/TKO · R1 May '23
The model read AI research · Pro
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
MJ MMA JOEY picks Kelvin Gastelum “Kelvin Gastelumam gets the decision win”
LM Leftlane MMA picks Kelvin Gastelum “I picked Kelvin Gastelum”
BE BetSam picks Daniel Rodriguez “I think that Kelvin gum's going out there he's going to outclass Daniel Rodriguez”
OS Once Upon A Slugfest picks Daniel Rodriguez “I went with Daniel Rodriguez”
BO Botmfeeder picks Kelvin Gastelum “you have to pick Calvin gasum specifically because it's like it's his death fight man if he loses his fight he's kicked out of the UFC”
WT WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips picks Kelvin Gastelum VALUE “I think he wins this fight he probably wins this fight by decision or submission”
PP Pick Pocket Podcast picks Daniel Rodriguez VALUE “the best play on this fight is Daniel Rodriguez plus three and a half”
CC Cody's Calls picks Kelvin Gastelum “I'm still going to pick Kelvin Gastelum here I think he's uh I think he's very good first off um he's fought five five rounds against osia koner um and Daniel Rodriguez Daniel Rodriguez Rodriguez man hasn't really impressed me in the last couple fights um they gave him they rigged the like they rigged the leech uh the Le should should have beat him Ian Gary knocked him out um I'm just not the biggest fan of Daniel Rodriguez man I I think he's on the back part of his career he's 37 um he does have a 3-inch reach up for Kelvin Gastelum but I'm going to side with Kelvin Gastelum Kelvin Gastelum or kelvin Kelvin Gastelum to Still Still to get this one done but that weight Miss is a little scary so take that one with a little grain of salt and yeah I'll take Gast one by TKO”
SA Stokastic DFS - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Daniel Rodriguez “if I had to play one side I guess it would be drod”
SA Stokastic DFS - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Kelvin Gastelum “I have Dr rod in 14% of lineups and Gast in 8%”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Kelvin Gastelum VALUE “I've been picking Kelvin Kelvin Gastelum all week” $1.50
BM Bedtime MMA picks Daniel Rodriguez “I'm picking Daniel Rodriguez by decision give me Daniel Rodriguez by decision uh let's talk about the co-main event two absolute Giger Chads Sergey pavlovic Alexander Volkov now I almost want to pick Alexander Volkov because he looks like sergey's big brother in these photos that they're taking I love that they're just meeting up and taking photos together and they're about to fight I love that right and I think his range and I think his kicks and I think his ability to stuff takedowns relative compared to the heavyweight division is pretty good I just can't shake the feeling Sergei Pavlovich is going to [__] brutally KO this guy and I and I know Alexander Volkov is joking when he says that Sergei Pavlovich used to you know knock him out in the gym and people think he's serious like like they don't I don't think they're understanding sar”