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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Almabayev v Nicolau Flyweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus 54 picks · conf 71/99
Almabayev 37
17 Nicolau
TUEBCM pick Almabayev
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
AAAlmabayev 23-3 VS 19-6-1 NicolauMN
5'4" height 5'6"
125 lb weight 125 lb
65" reach 66"
32 age 33
Orthodox stance Orthodox
Recent form last five, most recent first
Almabayev23-3
W CJ Johnson Submission · R3 Jun '26
W AP Perez Submission · R3 Nov '25
W JO Ochoa Decision · R3 Jul '25
L MK Kape KO/TKO · R3 Mar '25
W MN Nicolau Decision · R3 Oct '24
Nicolau19-6-1
L AA Almabayev Decision · R3 Oct '24
L AP Perez KO/TKO · R2 Apr '24
L BR Royval KO/TKO · R1 Apr '23
W MS Schnell KO/TKO · R2 Dec '22
W DD Dvořák Decision · R3 Mar '22
The model read AI research · Pro
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
TD The Rambling Dad picks Matheus Nicolau VALUE “this will be my next Underdog um well my third Underdog uh Nicol”
TD The Rambling Dad picks Asu Almabayev “I'm going with um mik d as well with Asu Almabayev as well”
OS Once Upon A Slugfest picks Matheus Nicolau “my subscribers and I went with um ASU alabay” $1.54
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Asu Almabayev “I settled on ASU amayev I think think he's going to be able to uh” $1.44
PP Pick Pocket Podcast picks Matheus Nicolau VALUE “I like Matheus Nicolau who just got smoked ... I think this a winnable fight for him ... official pick for this fight I think I'm buy wins a decision ... I like Matheus Nicolau plus three and a half”
PH PhoneHomeMMA picks Asu Almabayev “I think Asu Almabayev wins this one by decision”
KU Kunath picks Asu Almabayev “you can grab Asu Almabayev I think that Charles Johnson's going to get a little bit of love”
MM MMAWeekly.com picks Asu Almabayev “14th ranked at25 lbs Asu Almabayev takes on the seventh ranked Matheus Nicolau”
MC MMA Vulture Clips picks Asu Almabayev VALUE “give me ASU alv to beat him and that's sitting at a negative 131” $1.45
CM Coty MMA picks Asu Almabayev “I think U wins”
TP Touch 'Em Up Podcast picks Asu Almabayev VALUE “even though my pick is Asu Almabayev”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Asu Almabayev VALUE “I'm picking alv with some relative confidence here that he's going to be able to put it on Maas Nichol” $1.45